案例驱动下乳品安全事件应对的风险交流策略生成方法

风险交流(risk communication, RC)是食品安全监管中风险控制框架的构成要素,在乳品安全事件应对阶段,涉及如何根据风险情景,生成有效的风险交流策略这一问题,已有研究注重策略生成的顶层指导,难以适应复杂多样的现实情景.据此,本文阐述了案例驱动下乳品安全事件应对的风险交流策略生成方法,基于案例情景相似度算法生成风险交流策略清单,再结合案例的策略效果数据和概率分配函数实现策略清单约简,从策略完备性与应对时间窗出发完成多案例策略组合与生成.该方法能够提取与应用历史经验,有利于解决复杂情景表达困难、生成策略缺乏操作性与联系性的问题.最后,通过在黑龙江省的用例分析来验证该方法的可行性与有效性.

Case-driven generation method of risk communication strategies for responding dairy safety incidents

Risk communication is one of the basic elements constructing risk control framework in food safety regulation. At the stage of dairy food incidents responding, existing the problem that how to generate effective risk communication strategies according to the risk scenarios. Existing researches focus on the top-level guidance of strategy generation, which makes it hard to consider complex and various risk scenarios. Accordingly, this paper proposes a case-driven generation method of risk communication strategies for responding dairy safety incidents. Above all, generate lists of risk communication strategies based on scenario similarity algorithm. Next, accomplish the reduction of the strategy lists combining the strategy effects data of cases and basic probability assignment functions. Then, complete the strategy combining and generating of multiple cases, following the principles of strategy integrity and the time window of responding. This method can extract and apply historical experience, which helps solve the problems of hard complex scenarios expressing, and generating strategies lacking operability and connection. Finally, a use case in Heilongjiang province is proposed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.