基于Logistic的区域交通基础设施生态系统演化模型

作为城市(群)生态系统的子系统,区域交通基础设施系统具有类似自然生态系统的递进演化特征,是一个非线性耗散结构体系,由于环境容量的限制,区域交通基础设施生态系统的演化和平衡满足Logistic模型.本文分析区域交通基础设施生态系统演化的动力机制,构建系统演化模型及系统种群共生演化模型,描述系统整体演化过程及系统多种群趋向不同平衡态的演化路径.以上海市对外交通系统为例,验证区域交通基础设施生态系统演化模型的准确性和实用性,反推上海市对外交通系统演化的Logistic方程,并预测其演化趋势.以上海市市内三种交通类型演化为例,验证区域交通基础设施生态系统多种群共生演化模型.根据模型结果,本文系统提出注重维护已有设施、合理发展公共交通、引进推广绿色交通的区域交通基础设施发展策略,为城市(群)交通基础设施网络功能优化和能力提升提供理论支撑.

Evolution model of regional transport infrastructure ecosystem based on logistic equation

As a sub-system of urban agglomeration ecosystem, the regional transport infrastructure system has the evolvement characteristics similar to the natural ecosystem. It is a nonlinear dissipative structure system. Due to the limitation of the environmental capacity, the evolution and equilibrium of the regional transport infrastructure ecosystem satisfy the Logistic model. This paper analyzes the dynamic mechanism of the regional transportation infrastructure ecosystem evolution, builds the evolution model of the regional transportation infrastructure ecosystem and the model of population symbiosis evolution, and describes the overall evolution process of the system and the evolution path of the system's multiple populations tending to different equilibrium states. Taking Shanghai's external transport system as an example, this paper verifies the accuracy and practicability of the evolvement model of regional transport infrastructure ecosystem, and reverses Logistic equation of Shanghai's external transit system evolution and forecasts its evolution trend. Taking the evolution of three transport types in Shanghai as an example, the multi-population symbiotic evolution model of regional transport infrastructure ecosystem is validated. According to the results of the model, this paper proposes the strategies for the development of regional transport infrastructure that focuses on maintaining existing facilities, developing public transport reasonably, and introducing and promoting green transport, which provide theoretical support for functional optimization and capacity improvement of urban agglomeration transport infrastructure networks.