基于情景分析的旅游产品定价博弈模型研究

旅游供应链是为游客提供有形的产品和无形的服务等所有需求的旅游产品供应体系。旅游产品具有易逝性、差异性和无形性等特点，同时其生产与消费具有不可分割性。针对旅游供应商主导的单个供应商和多个旅游代理商组成的旅游供应链系统，建立了多从属者二层规划模型描述传统零售渠道和网络渠道之间相互竞争的旅游产品定价问题。数值结果表明从属层多个旅游代理商的竞争使得占主导地位的旅游供应商的均衡效益不仅大于单个旅游代理商的均衡效益，而且大于旅游代理商均衡效益的和，而从属层的旅游代理商则会因为潜在市场份额更大得到更多均衡效益。最后采用情景分析的方法对模型中的参数进行了灵敏度分析，结果表明产品替代系数与旅游供应商和所有旅游代理商的均衡价格及均衡效益都是正相关；当旅行社和旅游代理商的潜在市场份额变化时，实际销售量更多的旅游代理商会获得更大的均衡效益，而与其制定的产品均衡价格高低无关；旅游代理商的价格弹性与其自身均衡价格负相关。

Research on Stackelberg game model for the pricing of the tourism products based on scenario analysis

Tourism supply chain is a system, which can meet all needs of customers on tourism by providing tangible products and intangible services. However, the distribution channel of tourism products is different from that of tangible products because of their intangibility. Accordingly, for purpose of investigating into the tourism supply system involving of multiple competitive travel agencies and a predominant supplier, we formulated a bi level programming model with multi followers to illustrate how to determinate the price of tourism products competitively sold through the traditional retail or the internet channel. The numerical analysis revealed that the travel supplier can get more equilibrium profits than not only that of any single travel agency but also the sum of profits of both travel agencies. It also showed the travel agency, who has larger potential market shares, can get more equilibrium profits than the other one. Eventually, we analyzed the sensitivity of the parameters in the model by use of the scenario analysis to demonstrate how the market factors have effect on the equilibrium results. One obtained from the results: substitution coefficient between the distribution channel of the tourism productions is positively related with the equilibrium price and profits of both the travel supplier and two travel agencies; travel agency with more actual sale quantity can get more equilibrium profit than the other one and its equilibrium profit is independent of the equilibrium price of tourism product, when varying the potential market shares of the travel supplier and two travel agencies; Two travel agencies’ price elasticities were negatively related to their equilibrium prices.