年径流预测的小波系数加权和模型

利用连续小波变换和小波方差分析年径流的周期特征,已被众多学者认可并应用于年径流的分析中。但这种方法只是一种定性预测,并不能作出比较明确的定量预测.本文在原有定性分析方法的基础上,提出基于年径流时间序列主周期小波系数加权求和预测周期成分的年径流预测模型.该方法更为有效地利用了小波分析的多分辨率特征,并可减小趋势成分的预测误差.经对千河流域年径流建模并检验,结果表明,文中所提出的预测方法可得到较为理想的预测结果,并可用于年径流时间序列预测.

Weighted Summation of Wavelet Coefficients Model for Annual Runoff Prediction

The method that analyzes the period characteristics of annual runoff with continuous wavelet transformation and wavelet variance has been widely used.However it only gives qualitative prediction results,but not quantitative results.Based on the primary qualitative method,we propose an annual runoff prediction model using weighted sum of wavelet coefficients of major periods to predict the periodic components.The method effectively takes advantage of the multi-resolution characteristic of wavelet analysis,and can reduce prediction errors caused by trend components.The annual runoff data of Qianhe basin are used to build and check the model.The proposed method can provide better results useful in predicting annual runoff time series.