“资源诅咒”效应及传导机制研究——以中国中部36个资源型城市为例

在Eviews 8软件中分别采用OLS模型、个体固定效应模型、时间固定效应模型和时间个体双固定效应模型, 对中国中部36个地级资源型城市进行分析, 发现时间个体双固定效应模型解释能力最强。在时间个体双固定效应模型中, 自变量资源依赖度的符号为负且在5%显著性水平上显著, 证明“资源诅咒”效应存在。资源依赖度在1%的显著性水平上对制造业投入的影响为负, 制造业投入在5%的显著性水平上对实际人均GDP增长率的影响为正。经过综合分析可以得出, “资源诅咒”效应的主要传导机制是对制造业的挤出效应。在资源型城市转型发展中, 应重视吸引制造业投资, 降低政府对微观经济领域的干预程度, 构建多元化产业体系, 实现经济社会的可持续发展。

Research on “Resource Curse” Effect and Transmission Mechanism in Resource-based Cities: A Case of 36 Cities in Central China

With Eviews8, using the OLS model, individual fixed effect model, time fixed effect model and individual-time fixed effect model, “resource curse” effect and transmission mechanism are analyzed in 36 resource-based cities in central China. The results show that individual-time fixed effect model is the best. In the individual-time fixed effect model, the regression coefficient of resource dependence is negative and it’s significant at 5% level, which proves that “resource curse” effect really exists. Resource dependence has a negative impact on manufacturing investment at 1% significant level. Manufacturing investment has a positive effect on the actual GDP per capita at 5% significant level. In conclusion, the main transmission mechanism of “resource curse” effect is crowding out effect of manufacturing industry. In the transformation and development of resource-based cities, more attention should be paid to attract manufacturing investment, reduce the government's intervention in the microeconomic field, and build a diversified industrial system to realize the sustainable development of economic society.