江苏省能源结构模型动力学分析

以江苏省能源结构为背景,通过引入竞争体制,建立了一个以煤占主导地位,多元化发展油气和其他能源资源的非线性模型.通过精确的证明,分析了系统的耗散性,求得三个平衡点,并对平衡点的稳定性、分岔等动力学行为进行分析.证明了系统存在叉型分叉点和Hopf分岔点.通过分析江苏省油气消费弹性系数的变化范围,提出相应的能源对策,得到过大或过小的油、气消费弹性系数都会导致能源结构系统不稳定.要实现经济、能源和环境的可持续发展,必须在系统稳定的情况下,合理的增加油气的消费比例.

Energy resources structural system for Jiangsu Province and its dynamical analysis

Taking the energy resources structure for Jiangsu Province as background, a non-llnear model is established by leading into competition, which takes the coal as major resource and petroleum, natural gas and the other energy resources as minor ones. The dissipation of the system is analyzed by precise proofs, and three equilibrium points are obtained. Then the stability of equilibrium points, bifurcation and etc. are analyzed as well. Pitchfork bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation exist in the system by proofs. The corresponding measures are proposed by analyzing the domain of the elastic coefficient for petroleum and natural gas consumption in Jiangsu Province. According to the result, the elastic coefficient can not be too large or too small; otherwise it would cause the system unstable. So if the sustainable development is realized between economy, energy and environment, suitable increase of the proportion for petroleum and natural gas consumption is necessary when the system is stable.