基于改进证据理论的群决策专家意见集结方法

针对Demsper组合规则无法有效集结群决策中高冲突专家意见的局限,提出了利用冲突系数和Jousselme距离综合表示证据冲突程度进而通过证据冲突度计算专家客观权重的方法,采用经典的Demsper组合规则对经权重修正后的专家意见进行了集结;提出了一种新的可能度计算公式及基于可能度的信任区间的决策方法。数值实例表明:提出的方法可以有效集结高冲突专家意见,与几种改进方法相比收敛效果更好。基于可能度的信任区间法与最大信任函数法和最大似真函数法相比,决策结果更加科学。

The Expertise Aggregation Method Based on the Improved Evidence Theory in Group Decision Making

This paper, considering Demsper rule''s disadvantage in aggregating the expertise of high conflict, presents the evidence conflict degree based on conflict coefficient and Jousselme distance. The objective expert weight is computed by using the evidence conflict degree. Then Demsper rule is used to aggregate the modified expertise. Finally, a new probability degree formula is established and the belief interval method based on probability degree is used for decision-making. The numerical examples illustrate that the proposed method is more efficient in combining the conflict expertise than several improved DS methods and compared with the maximum belief function method and plausibility function method, the belief interval method proposed is more scientific.