我国铅锌矿业可持续发展评价与预警系统研究

对世界与我国1990～2006年铅锌产量、消费量和价格进行了详细调查,研究了我国铅锌矿业可持续发展的13个影响因素.采用模糊数学方法对我国铅锌矿业可持续发展进行了评价,并分析和预测了1990～2010年我国铅锌矿业可持续发展度(SDI).研究表明,1999年前我国铅矿业可持续发展度比较差,1999～2006年可持续发展持续向好,但随着我国铅资源保证程度下降,对国外资源依赖程度的增加和铅冶炼能力的过度扩张,我国铅矿业可持续发展度将下降,前景并不乐观;同时,1999年也是我国锌矿业可持续发展的分水岭,1999以前,我国锌矿业可持续发展度低于0.60,1999年后在0.70以上运行,预计2007～2010年我国锌矿业可持续发展度在0.74以上运行.根据可持续发展度,建立了我国铅锌矿业可持续发展预警系统.图2,表1,参8.

Evaluation and Alarm System of Lead-Zinc Mine of Sustainable Development in China

Investigating output, consumption and price in international and domestic lead-zinc market from 1990 to 2006, thirteen factors that influenced sustainable development of lead-zinc mine in China were researched. A method of fuzzy mathematics was introduced, sustainable development of lead-zinc mine in China were evaluated, and the sustainable development indexes(SDI) were analyzed and predicted from 1990 to 2010. The results show that the SDI of lead mine are very low before 1999, then the SDI are getting better and better from 1999 to 2006, but with decrease in lead resource, increase in depending upon overseas resource and dilation in capacity of lead smelt industry, the SDI of lead mine will be down, and the foreground will not be so optimistic in our country. And at the same time, it is the coteau of sustainable development in 1999, which the SDI of zinc mine were below 0.6 before 1999, then after 1999, the SDI are high 0.7, and we can predict that the SDI of zinc mine will be more than 0.74 from 2007 to 2010. According to sustainable development(SDI), an alarm system of sustainable development in lead-zinc mine are established. 2figs.,1tab.,8refs.