| 现场可靠性数据的变点分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张志华,王胜兵,金家善.现场可靠性数据的变点分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(6):937-940. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张志华 王胜兵 金家善 |
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| 作者单位： | 海军工程大学,湖北,武汉,430033 |
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| 基金项目： | 总装装备技术基础项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对产品寿命分布规律在使用过程中的变点问题,提出了产品寿命分布变点检验和估计的Bayes方法。根据产品现场使用先验信息的结构特点,提出了变点先验分布的确定方法,并给出了变点Bayes估计的计算方法。利用所得到的变点估计可制定产品的最佳维修策略以及产品报废期。数值模拟表明Bayes方法具有较好的稳健性,适用于现场可靠性数据的变点分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 变点 贝叶斯方法 先验分布 假设检验 估计 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-506X(2006)06-0937-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年5月15日 |
Change-point analysis of reliability field test data |
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| ZHANG Zhi-hua,WANG Sheng-bing,JIN Jia-shan.Change-point analysis of reliability field test data[J].System Engineering and Electronics,2006,28(6):937-940. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Zhi-hua WANG Sheng-bing JIN Jia-shan |
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| Abstract: | Aimed at the change-point problem,the Bayesian method which can be used for testing and estimating the changepoint of the produet's life distribution is presented.Aecording to the structura teature the prior information of the product used on the sile,the methods for the prior distrbution of the changepoint are provided,and the computing methods are given for the change-point Bayesian estimator.Using the change-point Bayesian estimator,the excellent maintenance strategy and the cycle of the product scraping can be established.Numerical simulation results show the Bayesian method has good robustness,and can be used in the change-point analysis of reliability data. |
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| Keywords: | change-point Bayesian method prior distribution hypothesis test estimation |
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