| 城市用水量的综合动态预测建模方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 许仕荣,尹学康,李黎武.城市用水量的综合动态预测建模方法[J].湖南城市学院学报(自然科学版),2002,11(1):37-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许仕荣 尹学康 李黎武 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南大学,水工程与科学系,湖南,长沙,410082 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于BP神经网络,建立了一种综合时间序列分析和多元分析特点的动态水量预测模型,模型除了将影响用水量的因素作为输入节点之外,还将预报日前2 d的用水量作为输入节点,使得模型不但反映了用水量与影响因素的关系,还揭示了用水量时间序列的非线性特性.经生产实践检验,该模型的预测精度达到工程要求.
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| 关 键 词： | 用水量预测 BP神经网络 时间序列 多元回归分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-9608(2002)01-0037-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年11月20 |
A Composite Method of Urban Water Consumption Forecasting |
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| XU Shi-rong,YIN Xue-kang,LI Li-wu.A Composite Method of Urban Water Consumption Forecasting[J].Journal of Hunan City University:Natural Science,2002,11(1):37-38. |
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| Authors: | XU Shi-rong YIN Xue-kang LI Li-wu |
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| Abstract: | Based on BP model of the artificial neural network, this paper establishes a dynamic water consumption-forecasting model with the characteristic of both time series and regression. This model use the factor affecting water consumption and water consumption two days forward as input node, so it not only reflects the relation between water consumption and its factors, but also shows the nonlinear characteristic of time series. According to practice in our production, the forecasting precise of this model fits the engineering demand completely. |
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| Keywords: | water consumption forecasting BP neural network time series multivariate regression analysis |
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