| 气象奇点与云南最大震级预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐国钧,田敏,赵革建,王在华,敬尚东,郑宏翔,高尚宇,邓丽仙,鲍裕,冷勇,米浦强,万云霞,朱炜.气象奇点与云南最大震级预报研究[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2001,23(5):351-356. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐国钧 田敏 赵革建 王在华 敬尚东 郑宏翔 高尚宇 邓丽仙 鲍裕 冷勇 米浦强 万云霞 朱炜 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南大学地球科学系, |
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| 摘 要： | 根据地震活动与气象要素之间的密切关系，采用大量气象资料选取预报因子，将气象统计理论应用于地震预报，开创了地震预报的数值预报新方法，并对中国云南5个地震分区，分上下半年做出了最大震级预报，其置信度达到特别显著水平。这对提高地震预报水平将具有深远意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象奇点 预报因子 多元回归 云南 最大震级预报 地震预报 置信度 |
| 文章编号： | 0258-7971(2001)05-0351-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年3月27日 |
Meteorological Singularity and Prediction of Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Yunnan Province |
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| XU Guo-jun,TIAN Min,ZHAO Ge-jian,WANG Zai-hua,JING Shang-dong,ZHENG Hong-xiang,GAO Shang-yu,DENG Li-xian,BAO Yu,LENG Yong,MI Pu-qiang,WAN Zhi-xia,ZHU Wei.Meteorological Singularity and Prediction of Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences),2001,23(5):351-356. |
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| Authors: | XU Guo-jun TIAN Min ZHAO Ge-jian WANG Zai-hua JING Shang-dong ZHENG Hong-xiang GAO Shang-yu DENG Li-xian BAO Yu LENG Yong MI Pu-qiang WAN Zhi-xia ZHU Wei |
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| Abstract: | Baced on the correlation between seismicity and meteorological elements,large volume of meteorological data has been used to select the prediction factor.The statistics theory in meteorology has been applied to earthquake prediction,so that a new method of digital prediction of earthquakes has been developed in this paper.Yunnan Province is divided into five regions and the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in each region is predicted for the first and second half years,whose reliability level is notably high.This method will be significant to promoting of earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | meteorological singularity prediction factor multivariate regression seismic regions in Yunnan Province maximum magnitude prediction |
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