基于时变可靠度的水工建筑物防洪风险估算

根据时变可靠度原理，充分利用已有年内所有的洪水信息，建立了水工建筑物在不同使用期、遭遇不同标准洪水下的防洪风险估算模型．结合南水北调中线总干渠的滏阳河渡槽进行了实际应用，给出了其在不同使用期内、不同的设计标准下水工建筑物的防洪风险概率结果表明，水工建筑的防洪风险与使用期和设计标准有着密切的关系，使用期越长，采用设计标准越低的水工建筑的防洪风险越大，相反，使用期越短，采用设计标准越高的水工建筑的防洪风险越小，这个规律符合水工建筑的实际情况．

Flood Risk Accessment of Water Construction Based on Time-Dependent Reliability Theory

Flood risk assessment model of water construction with different design standards in different used periods was established according to time-dependent reliability theory.All information about flood was considered in this model,which was tested in Fuyanghe aqueduct of South to North Water Transfer Project Middle Route in Hebei Province.Flood risk of water construction with different design standards in different used periods was assessed.The results showed that flood risk of water construction was closely related to both the used period and design standard.So it was concluded that the longer the period of use and the lower design standard,the higher the flood risk.Reversely,the shorter the period of use and the higher design standard,the lower the flood risk.This trend coincides with the fact of water construction.