| 灰色预测模型参数估计的优化方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 穆勇. 灰色预测模型参数估计的优化方法[J]. 青岛大学学报(自然科学版), 2003, 16(3): 95-98 |
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| 作者姓名： | 穆勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 济南大学继续教育学院,山东,济南,250022 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于拟合误差绝对值和最小及折扣系数建立了GM(1，1)模型参数估计的折扣最小一乘法，给出了求解折扣最小一乘法的小生境遗传算法，它克服了用线性规划方法求解时，折扣系数靠经验确定而易导致偏差的问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测模型 参数估计 优化方法 折扣最小一乘法 小生境遗传算法 灰色系统理论 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-1037(2003)03-095-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-06-10 |
OPTIMAL METHOD OF ESTIMATION TO PARAMETERS IN THE GREY FORECASTING MODEL |
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| MU Yong. OPTIMAL METHOD OF ESTIMATION TO PARAMETERS IN THE GREY FORECASTING MODEL[J]. Journal of Qingdao University(Natural Science Edition), 2003, 16(3): 95-98 |
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| Authors: | MU Yong |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of least absolute value and discount coefficient,the discount least absolute value is offered on the parameter estimation in the grey model GM(1,1);in the meanwhile,it is solved by niche genetic algorithm which overcomes a deviation of discount coefficient determined only by one's experience when it is solved by linear programming.The Analysis of some examples indicates that the new method improves the precision of fitting and forecasting of the model. |
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| Keywords: | grey model parameter estimation discount least absolute value niche genetic algorithm. |
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