中国“两税合一”改革的长期影响分析

该文基于在上海或深圳上市的企业数据,使用事件研究的方法分析了"两税合一"改革对不同所有制企业的影响。该文分析发现,在2007年3月16日"两税合一"改革通过的当天,不同所有制企业的股价发生了不同的变化。具体而言,与内资企业相比,外资股份占0～25%的企业的股价显著上升了约3%,然而对于外资股份多于25%的企业而言,其股价没有显著的变化。根据有效市场理论,企业的股价反映了其长期绩效。该文的研究结果表明,中国"两税合一"的改革总体而言在长期内将对企业的经济绩效产生正影响,从而促进整个国民经济的发展。

Long-term impacts of China’s "Unifying Two Tax Schedules" reform

Based on firms listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges,this paper analyzes the long-term impacts of China’s "Unifying Two Tax Schedules" reform on the economic performance of firms with different ownership structures using the method of event study.Analyses show that,on March 16th in 2007 when the reform was announced,the firms with different ownership structures responded differently to this news.Specifically,compared with domestic firms,the stock prices of firms with 0—25% foreign-owned shares significantly increased by 3%,but the stock prices of firms with more than 25% foreign-owned shares did not change significantly.According to the efficient market hypothesis,firms’ stock prices reflect their economic performance in the long term.The results show that the "Unifying Two Tax Schedules" reform in general will have positive effects on firms’ economic performance,and therefore on the growth of the whole economy.