Predicting the spread of nuclear radiation from the damaged Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant |
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Authors: | FangLi Qiao GuanSuo Wang Wei Zhao JieChen Zhao DeJun Dai YaJuan Song ZhenYa Song |
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Institution: | (1) Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Ocean and Climate Physics, 61 Route 9W, PO Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, USA;(2) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA;(3) National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA;(4) National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA;(5) Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 291 McCormick Road, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA |
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Abstract: | Japan suffered a M9.0 earthquake and massive tsunami on March 11, 2011, which seriously damaged the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant and caused
a nuclear crisis. The spread of nuclear radiation from the power plant through the atmosphere and ocean was predicted with
a short-term climate forecasting model and an ocean circulation model under some idealized assumptions. If nuclear matter
were leaked in the near-ground layer of 992 hPa, the climate model results show that the nuclear radiation would cover North
America 10 days after the initial leakage, with the concentration at the forefront dramatically reduced to 10 millionths of
the initial model concentration at the source. The radiation would span Europe in 15 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere
in 30 days. If the initial leakage was assumed to occur in the layer 5000-m above the ground, the radiation would cover Europe
in 10 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere in 15 days. Moreover, under the assumption that the nuclear matter leaked
in the 10000-m layer, the radiation would affect much of China after 10 days. The ocean circulation model indicates that the
nuclear material would be slowly transported northeast of Fukushima and reach 150°E in 50 days, and the nuclear debris in
the ocean would be confined to a narrow band. Compared with the spread in the ocean, the area affected by leaked nuclear radiation
in the atmosphere would be very large. Atmospheric monitors in North America and Europe will be helpful for estimating the
effect in China of any leaked nuclear material. |
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Keywords: | leaked nuclear material spread atmospheric and oceanic channels prediction numerical model |
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