灾害性洪水长期预报方法评述及探讨

通过研究常用的洪水长期预报方法后认为，对灾害性洪水发生时间规律的研究比对其量的变化过程的研究更有可能揭示这类洪水发生的规律，对防汛更有实际意义，指出历史洪水资料的重要性。以大洪水发生时间为预报对象，用谱分析和自回归模型相结合的方法对汉口水文站大洪水进行预报。

A Review and Study on Long-Term Forecasting Method for Disastrous Floods

Disastrous flood forecasting is the most difficult problem and demands prompt solution in long-term hydrologic forecasting.In the author's opinion,the study on the long-term changes of occurrence year of disastrous foolds is more important than those of amplitude of the floods.In this way,it is possible to reveal the law of flood variation and is of great practical value to flood-prevention,An example which combines harmonic analysis and AR(p) model to predict the occurrence year of catastrophic flood of Hankou Station at the Yantze River is also presented here.