| 石河子秋季初霜冻的灰色灾变预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕新,罗先平,李晔.石河子秋季初霜冻的灰色灾变预测[J].石河子大学学报,1995(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕新 罗先平 李晔 |
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| 作者单位： | 石河子气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用灰色系统理论的季节灾变预测方法，对石河子未来年份的初霜冻进行预测，并建立灰色季节灾变ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型，结果表明：１９９４年初霜冻的出现日期在１０月１７日以前，在１０月１０日左右，经验证与初霜冻实际出现时间１０月１０日完全一致。
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| 关 键 词： | 初霜冻，灰色预测，模型，灾变 |
The Grey Forecasting of First Freeze Injury in Autumn in Shihezi |
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| La Xin, Luo Xianping,Li Ye.The Grey Forecasting of First Freeze Injury in Autumn in Shihezi[J].Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science),1995(1). |
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| Authors: | La Xin Luo Xianping Li Ye |
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| Institution: | La Xin; Luo Xianping;Li Ye(Dept. of Agri Cultural Science) (Shihezi Mete orologic Burau) |
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| Abstract: | By using season disaster forecasting method of grey system theory, we have forecated the first freeze injury date of the years to come in Shihezi. And established forecasting model of grey season disaster GM(1, 1). The result indicates that the first freeze injury date of 1994 is about 10th Oct,and the forecasting identified with the date of first freeze injury completely. |
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| Keywords: | first freeze injury grey forecaasting model disaster |
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