我国股市与房地产市场的协整分析

本文以2004年至2009年间上证A股月流通市值和房地产月销售额作二元时间序列，进行协整分析，得出两者之间呈正向相关性，并且股市相较于房地产市场投资倾向约晚一个月。计算表明，近年来二者联动性十分强烈。在宏观调控时，应注意对金融风险的防范，从全局的角度思考政策对资本市场的影响。对个人投资者而言，应当重视房地产市场对股市的预警作用。

Analysis on Relationship Between Stock Market and Real Estate Market in China

Take the Shanghai A share market capitalization and real estate sales from 2004 to 2009 as a binary on the time series, a expression between the two series positively related is found. Compared to the real estate market,investments in the stock market tend to about a month later. Empirical evidence shows that in recent years, the stock market and real estate market are of very strong linkage, so that the macroeconomic regulations and control should be paid attention to possible financial risks and thought twice about the policies＇ influence on Chinese capital market. And the individual investors should pay attention to the change of real estate market generating prophetic effect on the stock market.