中国半湿润流域WRF-Hydro模型参数敏感性分析

为提高WRF-Hydro模型在中国半湿润流域的模拟预报精度,以半湿润的陈河流域为研究对象,选取了WRF-Hydro模型中土层厚度乘子、水箱模型指数、土层渗透系数、地表截留深乘子、地表糙率乘子和河道糙率乘子6个参数进行敏感性分析。通过数据模拟这6个参数在合理取值范围内的不同取值对洪水模拟及各评价指标的影响,定性分析了各参数的敏感性,并采用修正的Morris筛选法定量判断各参数的敏感性。结果表明:土层厚度乘子、土层渗透系数及河道曼宁糙率非常敏感,根据目标函数与典型洪水分析,建议分别在0.1~1.0、0.0~1.0、0.5~1.5内取值。

Parametric sensitivity analysis of WRF-Hydro model in a semi-humid watershed of China

To improve the simulation accuracy in the Chinese semi-humid watershed, this study took the Chenhe Catchment in the semi-humid area as the study area and selected 6 parameters including ZSOILFAC, GWEXP, REFKDT, RETDEPRTFAC, OVROUGHRTFAC and MANNFAC for the sensitivity analysis of WRF-Hydro model parameters. The sensitivity of these parameters was qualitatively analyzed by studying the influence of different parameter value in the reasonable range on the flood simulation and each evaluation index, and the modified Morris screening method was used to quantitatively determine the sensitivity of each parameter. The results show that ZSOILFAC, REFKDT and MANNFAC are very sensitive, and it is suggested to take the value within 0.1 to 1.0, 0.0 to 1.0 and 0.5 to 1.5 respectively.