中国人感染H7N9的时空传播特性分析

为揭示中国人感染H7N9疫情的时空发展规律和演变规律,基于2013年至2017年人感染H7N9统计数据,分别进行时间序列和标准差椭圆分析.首先以月为时间单位分析疫情时间序列,识别疫情的高峰期和低谷期,在此基础上将整个疫情期进行阶段划分,并对各阶段的疫情变化规律进行分析.然后根据疫情病例的发生位置建立标准差椭圆,通过各阶...

Analysis of spatio-temporal transmission characteristicsfor H7N9 infection in China

To reveal the temporal and spatial development and evolution of human H7N9 infection in China, based on the statistical data of human H7N9 infection from 2013 to 2017, time series and standard deviation ellipse analysis were performed. Firstly, the epidemic time series was analyzed with month as time unit, and the peak and trough periods of the epidemic were identified. On this basis, the whole epidemic period was divided into stages, and the epidemic change law of each stage was analyzed. Then the standard deviation ellipse is established according to the location of the epidemic cases, and the spread of the epidemic situation is described by the changes of the ellipse center, azimuth and area in each stage. Finally, through the time and space analysis of the three typical areas, the spread law of the epidemic was further verified. The results show that, the high incidence period is from December to May every year, especially in January and February. The proportion of cases in these two months is as high as 51.74%. September of every year is the low point of epidemic situation, which is the dividing point of epidemic spreading stage. During the whole epidemic period, the number of cases increased, decreased, broke out and returned to zero. Spatially, the center of the standard deviation ellipse shifts from Huzhou City to Fuzhou City and Quzhou City, and the coverage area of the ellipse also expands from coastal areas to inland areas. It shows that the early control measures are not effective enough, and the effect of prevention and control is not obvious, which makes the epidemic spread. In the later period, the strict measures had a good effect, and the epidemic situation was effectively controlled. Study the spatio-temporal transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9, can provide a theoretical and practical reference for the prediction and Prevention of infectious diseases in China.