地震灾情快速评估方法和应用：以玉树地震为例

 地震突发性强，短时间内可造成严重伤亡和损失，需要进行应急响应和震害快速评估。针对中国震害评估中存在的空间对应性和时间有效性问题，总结分析了中国大陆地区地震烈度的已有快速评估模型，提出了考虑震源机制解的带方向的地震烈度图快速生成方法。进而在应急评估模式下，针对不同的数据完备性，设计并开发了利用GIS空间叠加分析功能的震害快速评估演进模型与方法，包括震害倒损房屋和受灾人口的定性与定量渐进评估，解决了时间有效性问题。以玉树地震为例，对倒损房屋和受灾人数进行了定性和定量评估；与国务院公布的受灾人数比对，误差为23.3%，符合国家减灾应急要求（误差<30%），表明本文模型合理、评估结果可靠，有应用前景。

Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Disaster: With Yushu Earthquake as an Example

The earthquake will result in severe damages in a shor time. The emergency response and rapid assessment are necessary. In view of the shortcomings of available earthquake disaster assessment methods in spatial and temporal scales, based on a review of current evaluation models for rapid assessment of seismic intensity, this paper proposes a method for generating seismic intensity map based on seismological mechanism solutions. Using available data, the chains of rapid assessment of earthquake disaster were analyzed, and different models were established for different temporal scales of data sets. By using GIS overlay, the assessment models were mathematically established and software developed, including the qualitative and quantitative assessment of damaged houses and affected population due to earthquake. Finally, taking the Yushu earthquake as an example, the affected population and damaged buildings were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. As compared to the announced data from the State Council, the error of rapid assessment results on affected population were 23.3%, which is in the range of the demands of national disaster reduction and emergency (with error less than 30%). It shows that the method and models presented in this paper are reasonable and reliable, and is of value for future applications.