城镇居民居住建筑能耗情景预测研究——以吉林省为例

建筑能耗是继工业、交通能耗之后的第三大社会能源消耗主体。结合LEAP模型,将吉林省城镇居住建筑能耗分为采暖、炊事热水、照明、电冰箱和其他家用电器用能。在不同情景下进行预测分析。结果表明,2020年吉林省城镇居住建筑能耗在基准情景、政策情景下分别为1 082万吨标煤、952万吨标煤,并对吉林省城镇居住建筑节能工作提出了对策建议,为推动吉林省城镇居住建筑向建筑设节能设计标准迈进提供现实依据。

A Study on the Scenario Forecast of Residential Building Energy in Jilin Province Based on LEAP

Buildings energy consumptions is the third largest social energy consumption subject after industry and transportation. This research use LEAP model and scene analysis, divide building energy consumption into heating, cooking lighting, refrigerators and other household the reference and the positive policy scenario. By 2020 building energy consumption is 10.82 million ton of coal equivalent in reference scenario, and in policy scenarios is 9.52 million ton of coal equivalent. And this paper proposes measures for saving living building energy. Lastly providing a realistic basis, which improve Jilin Province residential buildings moving into building energy-saving standard.