An empirical approach to symmetry and probability |
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| Authors: | Jill North |
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| Institution: | 1. Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9512, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands;2. Malott Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA;3. IMPA, Estrada Dona Castorina 110, Jardim Botanico, Cep 22460-320, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil;1. Information Sciences Directorate, US Army Research Office, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, United States;2. Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, NC 25501, United States |
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| Abstract: | We often rely on symmetries to infer outcomes’ probabilities, as when we infer that each side of a fair coin is equally likely to come up on a given toss. Why are these inferences successful? I argue against answering this question with an a priori indifference principle. Reasons to reject such a principle are familiar, yet instructive. They point to a new, empirical explanation for the success of our probabilistic predictions. This has implications for indifference reasoning generally. I argue that a priori symmetries need never constrain our probability attributions, even for initial credences. |
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