| 高等教育发展政策制定的模型分析及其对中国的实证 |
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| 引用本文： | 拱雪,周亚,李克强.高等教育发展政策制定的模型分析及其对中国的实证[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(1):97-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 拱雪 周亚 李克强 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学系统科学系,100875,北京 |
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| 基金项目： | 全国教育科学规划项目，北京师范大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先通过数理分析,对高等教育学龄人口、教育规模、毛入学率三者之间的关系进行讨论,得出理想状况下高等教育发展的速度下限;在此基础上,应用人口演化离散模型以及结合统计数据等,对中国2006-2020年的高等教育发展进行了预测.结论有:高等教育规模的变化率近似等于高等教育学龄人口数量变化率与高等教育毛入学率变化率之和;高等教育阶段学龄人口先增加后减少,在2008年达到峰值;按照速度下限发展,高等教育毛入学率2020年会超过教育部门制定的毛入学率40%的目标.
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| 关 键 词： | 学龄人口 教育规模 毛入学率 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-07 |
A MODEL ANALYSIS AND DEMONSTRATION ON CHINESE HIGHER EDUCATION DEVELOPING POLICY |
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| Gong Xue,Zhou Ya,Li Keqiang.A MODEL ANALYSIS AND DEMONSTRATION ON CHINESE HIGHER EDUCATION DEVELOPING POLICY[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2007,43(1):97-100. |
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| Authors: | Gong Xue Zhou Ya Li Keqiang |
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| Institution: | Department of System Science, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China |
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| Abstract: | The relations among school age population,education scale and enrollment rate of higher education are analyzed.The lower bound on the development of higher education is derived under the ideal condition.Also the population discrete prediction model is used to the demonstration with statistics data,and get the prediction of higher education developing trend from 2006 to 2020.The results show that the variation rate of higher education scale is approximately the summation of that of school age population and enrollment rate;school age population first increases and then decreases after 2008;according to the lower bound on the development,higher education will exceed 40% enrollment rate in 2020. |
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| Keywords: | school age population education scale enrollment rate |
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