香港和深圳市铁路需求预测

亚洲的许多城市为解决城市交通问题，正关注铁路系统并允许进一步发展．对铁路系统的规划与设计必须有强有力的预测，同时对于有效路径选择效用方面的细微差别必须是敏感的．EMME／2中缺省的公交分配程序能生成出行费用矩阵，这些矩阵适用于战略模型，但是在用这个缺省的程序对铁路进行具体的预测时限制会增加．本文简述了基于logit模型的多路径公交EMME／2模型结构，它适用于低服务间隔的城市铁路网．该模型允许子模式（铁路或其他）的选择，车站和车站间路径的选择，并描述了所必需的网络编码和交通分配增加的自由选择等特征．

RAIL DEMAND FORECASTING IN HONG KONG AND SHENZHEN

Many cities in Asia are looking to rail-based systems in order to solve urban transport problems and to allow further development. Patronage forecasts for rail system planning and design must be robust and yet sensitive to small differences in the attractiveness of the available route choice options.The default EMME/2 transit assignment procedure can produce travel cost matrices that are suitable for use in strategic modelling but limitations arise when the default procedure is used for detailed rail patronage forecasting. This paper describes a logit-based multi-routing public transport EMME/2 model structure that is appropnate for urban rail networks with low service intervals. The model allows for choice of sub-mode (rail or other), choice of station, and choice of rail route between station pairs. The necessary network coding and transit assignment additional options' features required are outlined.