重庆市主城区住宅需求总量预测模型

发展房地产业是当前重庆市产业结构实现战略性调整，促进地区经济发展的重要措施之一，论文首先对国内外住宅需求总量预测方法进行了研究分析，其次利用重庆市主城区1993～2000年居住水平与主要影响因素的截面数据，采取逐步回归和组合预测分析的方法得出了重庆市城区住宅需求总量预测模型。该模型认为：重庆市主城区住宅需求总量与城市人口呈正相关，这与住宅作为生活必需品的性质相符，同时也说明重庆市城区的住宅需求仍处于较低水平。

An Aggregate Demand Forecasting Model on the Residence of Chongqing Main City Zone

Developing of real estate industry is one of the important ways to optimize Chongqing's industry structure and develop Chongqing's economy based on the relative theory. This paper brings forward an aggregate demand forecasting model on the residence of Chongqing main city zone according as data of the level of residence and relative factors in a certain period of Chongqing main city zone,by the way of gradually regressing and compounding forecasting. The model indicates that, according with the characteristic of residence,the aggregate demand of the residence is positive correlation to the polulation of Chongqing main city zone.