基于交叉概率理论的系统业务波及影响分析方法

针对信息系统业务波及影响分析缺乏量级标定以及分析结果受专家评价偏好影响的不足，提出一种基于交叉概率理论的系统业务波及影响分析方法.首先由专家评估信息系统业务功能间的关联性和影响程度，通过交叉影响矩阵表示业务功能间的关联性；然后用主客观权重结合法为矩阵赋权，减小专家打分对交叉影响矩阵的主观影响，将系统业务功能间的关联性进...

System Business Affecting Impact Analysis MethodBased on Crossover Probability Theory

Because of the lack of scale calibration on the analysis results of information system business impactanalysis as well as the influence of expert evaluation preference on it, an analysis method of system business affectingimpact based on crossover probability theory is proposed. First, the experts evaluate the relevance and influence ofthe business functions of the information system, and the correlation between business functions is represented by across-impact matrix. Then, the subjective and objective weight combination method is used to weight the matrix to re?duce the subjective impact of experts scoring on the cross-impact matrix, quantify the correlation between systembusiness functions, and generate a comprehensive cross- impact matrix. Finally, the preference chain generation algo?rithm is used to generate the business preference chain of the information system, and the interaction relationship of each business of the system is associated. On this basis, the influence trend of other businesses after the business in?terruption is obtained by analyzing the position of the interrupted business in the preference chain. Experimental re?sults show that the proposed method can accurately measure the impact and trend of business function interruption onother business functions of information system.