论制度变迁中的适应效应——兼对中国历史治乱循环的一种解释

制度变迁中“路径依赖”和“道路锁定”现象发生的主要原因在于行为者对特定制度结构所产生的适应效应。由于存在不完全信息和“搭便车”的障碍，行为者通常会因应制度的激励结构而调整其资源配置，使资源配置结构同激励结构趋于吻合，由此形成与制度结构相适应的知识结构及人力资本的专用性。从而，在没有新信息和知识输入的条件下，行为者对制度的主观选择模型必然为：认同既有的制度规则

On Adaptability Effect in Institutions Changes

The major reason for path dependence and lock in in institutions changes lies in the adaptability revealed in people facing particular institutions changes. Due to the incompleteness of information and the phenomenon of getting a lift, people will often readjust their resources allocation in accordance with the encouragement structure of institution, tend to keep their resources allocation in line with the encouragement structure, and bring about the knowledge structure and human capital suiting the needs of institutions. Given no new knowledge or information, therefore, people will subjectively indent themselves with the existing institutions structure.