基于铝制品平均使用寿命的中国铝的流动分析

以交通工具为例,给出了其使用寿命的正态、Weibull及Beta三种概率分布.结合各类含铝制品的使用寿命分布和我国铝制品的消费构成,采用加权平均法计算了我国2003～2007年投入使用的铝制品平均使用寿命为15～19年;采用物质流分析的跟踪观察法,从铝的生产、铝制品的加工制造、铝制品的使用和报废铝制品的回收等4个阶段分析了我国2007年铝产品生命周期中铝的流动状况.给出了铝工业的物流指标,得到了我国2003～2007年原料自给率和废杂铝使用比例的变化,总的废杂铝使用比例在13%～17%范围内;分析了我国2003～2007年间废杂铝回收数量和铝产品生命周期铝损失量的变化;提出了促进我国铝工业可持续发展的政策建议.

Aluminum Flow Analysis Based on Average Service Life of Aluminum Products in China

The means of transportation were taken as examples to analyze their service lives in terms of three probability distributions, i.e., the normal, Weibull and Beta distributions. Combining the service life distributions of Al-containing products with the structure of consumers' demands for aluminum products in China from 2003 to 2007, the average service life of aluminum products was calculated to be 15~19 years by the weighted average method. The aluminum flow as a material flow of the life cycle of aluminum products in 2007 was analyzed via a tracking observation process from the alumina/aluminum production, processing/making of products and utilization up to scrapping/recycling, thus giving the materials flow indices of aluminum industry to obtain the variation of resource self-support ratio and the use ratio of aluminum scrap in China from 2003 to 2007. The overall use ratio of aluminum scrap was in the range from 13% to 17%. The quantity of aluminum scrap recycled and loss of aluminum in the life cycle of aluminum products from 2003 to 2007 were both analyzed. Then, some policies are suggested with the intention of making China's development of aluminum industry sustainable.