强震地面断裂时土地利用适宜性的概率评估

为评价中国城镇土地利用中的断层场地,建立了强震地面断裂危险性评价概率模型。根据中国大于6级的340个地面断裂震害资料的统计分析,给出概率模型参数;基于震级、覆盖层厚度对强震地面断裂影响,提出三级地面断裂危险划分和二级避让距离的建设用地适宜性评价理念;在此基础上提出两阶段土地利用适宜性评价方法、以50 a超越概率为基础的强震地面断裂适宜性评价分级和相应的工程建设适宜性。该研究为城镇强震地面断裂场地规划选址所需要的适宜性评估提供了工程实用评价方法。

Probability assessment of land use suitability with ground surface ruptures induced by strong earthquakes

A probability model was developed to analyze seismic ground surface ruptures(SGSRs) to assess the faultage ground area for urban land use planning in China.The model parameters were statistically recovered from data for historically strong earthquakes in China,including 340 events with magnitudes over level 6 in mainland China since 1900.The study identified third-level hazardous regions and second-level avoidance regions with an analysis methodology based on the earthquake magnitude and cover thickness.The results give a two-stage analytical assessment method for land use,suitable SGSR levels based on 50 year probabilities,and suggestions for engineering construction methods.Engineering assessment methods are given for sites with strong ground surface ruptures.