| 定量特尔斐预测的经验贝叶斯估计法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王成斌. 定量特尔斐预测的经验贝叶斯估计法[J]. 北京交通大学学报(自然科学版), 1991, 0(2) |
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| 作者姓名： | 王成斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 北方交通大学管理科学研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文主要探讨利用贝叶斯估计法改进特尔斐预测精确度的可能性。作为示例,着重讨论了时间域和空间域两种典型的预测类型,并通过设想的例子阐明了这种方法的具体应用。
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| 关 键 词： | Delphi方法 贝叶斯估计 时间预测 任务量预测 |
Empirical Bayes Estimation for Delphi Quantitative Forecasting |
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| Wang Chengbin. Empirical Bayes Estimation for Delphi Quantitative Forecasting[J]. JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY, 1991, 0(2) |
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| Authors: | Wang Chengbin |
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| Affiliation: | Management Science Institute |
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| Abstract: | This paper primarily deals with the possibility to improve the forecast precision for Delphi method by use of Bayes' estimation. As an illustrated example, two typical forecasts in the time domain and the space domain are discussed. The applications of this method are explained by some supposed examples. |
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| Keywords: | Delphi methods Bayes estimate predictions/duration forecast task forecast |
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