基于IPAT模型的江西省碳排放峰值预测研究

通过对江西省1995-2012年的时间序列数据进行回归,利用IPAT模型对未来江西省碳排放峰值出现时间进行预测。可以发现,技术进步对峰值的影响较为重要。按照江西省目前发展趋势,若经济社会发展的同时保持能源强度和碳排放强度合理下降,江西省的峰值到达时间约在2032-2035年之间。因此,保持能源强度和碳排放强度的不断下降对江西省尽快出现碳排放峰值至关重要,健全应对气候变化机制、调整产业结构、优化能源结构、提高清洁能源消费比重应成为江西省今后的重点工作任务。

Forecast of Jiangxi's Carbon Emissions to Peak Based on IPAT Model

The paper uses time series regression on Jiangxi＇s 1995 - 2012 data to draw the trend, and utilize IPAT model to forecast of Jiangxi＇s carbon emissions to peak in future. We find that the impact of technology progress on the peak is important. According to the current trends of Jiangxi,if the economic and social development while energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity keep rea- sonable decline, Jiangxi＇s peak will arrive between 2032 and 2035. Therefore, maintaining the decli- ning energy intensity and carbon intensity of carbon emissions is essential to realize the peak as soon as possible. Establish against climate change mechanism, adjustment industrial structure, optimization energy structure and increase the proportion of clean energy consumption should be the focus of future tasks.