| 黑龙江省粮食生产变化及潜力预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓吉祥,程叶青,张阳生.黑龙江省粮食生产变化及潜力预测[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2010,26(1):22-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓吉祥 程叶青 张阳生 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北大学,城市与资源学系,陕西,西安,710127
2. 中国科学院,东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林,长春,130012 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省科技攻关重点项目，国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1980—2007年统计数据，运用区位商和集中度，分析了黑龙江省主要粮食作物的竞争力及其总产量的变化特征，并采用等维灰数递补模型对粮食生产潜力进行了预测。研究结果表明：黑龙江省粮食产量呈现波动型增长态势，可分为高速增长期、低谷期和稳定恢复期3个阶段，这3个阶段粮食产量与国家粮食总产量变化都呈较强的正相关。黑龙江省2020年和2030年粮食生产潜力可分别达到4418．08万t～4664．60万t和4432．43万t～4707．42万t，在国家粮食安全战略中的地位将不断增强。表3，参14。
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| 关 键 词： | 区位商 粮食生产 潜力预测 黑龙江省 |
Changes of Grain Production and Its Potential Prediction in Heilongjiang Province |
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| DENG Ji-xiang,CHENG Ye-qing,ZHANG Yang-sheng.Changes of Grain Production and Its Potential Prediction in Heilongjiang Province[J].System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture,2010,26(1):22-26. |
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| Authors: | DENG Ji-xiang CHENG Ye-qing ZHANG Yang-sheng |
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| Institution: | DENG Ji-xiang1,CHENG Ye-qing2,ZHANG Yang-sheng1 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistical data of 1980 - 2007,the competitiveness of the major crops and changing characteristics of grain yield in Heilongjiang were discussed by using the method of Location quotient and concentration ratio. Moreover,the grain yielded potential was also predicted using the equal dimension and grey dynamic method. The results show that the grain yield in Heilongjiang Province takes on the fluctuated increasing character,which can be divided into three periods of the high speed rise period,th... |
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| Keywords: | location quotient grain production potential prediction Heilongjiang Province |
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