| 基于ANP_FCE模型的大型航天研发项目风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷晓刚.基于ANP_FCE模型的大型航天研发项目风险评估[J].科学技术与工程,2011(26). |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷晓刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙,410073 |
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| 基金项目： | “十二五”重点项目；湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 在构建大型航天研发项目风险评价指标体系的基础上，针对风险因素之间存在相互影响的特点，根据网络分析法（ANP）建立大型航天研发项目风险评估的网络结构模型，确定了所有风险指标的权重；引入模糊综合评价(FCE)的思想和方法，提出大型航天研发项目风险评估的ANP_FCE模型，并结合某航天研发项目描述模型的建模过程，确定项目的综合风险水平和关键风险因素，为项目风险管理与控制提供重要的决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 网络分析法，模糊综合评价，研发项目，风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 5/11/2011 8:02:24 PM |
| 修稿时间： | 5/26/2011 8:49:36 PM |
Risk Evaluation of Large-scale Space R&D Project Based on ANP-FCE Model |
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| leixiaogang.Risk Evaluation of Large-scale Space R&D Project Based on ANP-FCE Model[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2011(26). |
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| Authors: | leixiaogang |
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| Institution: | LEI Xiao-gang,LI Jiang(School of Information System & Management,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on establishing the large-scale space R&D project risk evaluation indexes system, in allusion to the characteristics that risk factors are interactive, analytical network process is applied to build the risk evaluation network structure model for large-scale space R&D project, determine the weight of all the indexes. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is introduced to evaluate the integrated risk level and the key risk factors. The process of such ANP-FCE model is described by a demonstration case analysis, and the study provides a new method for promoting the management and control of large-scale aerospace R&D project. |
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| Keywords: | Analytic Network Process Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation R&D project risk evaluation |
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