基于半参数部分线性混合效应模型的房地产上市公司盈利能力影响因素研究

基于沪深两市的50家房地产上市公司2006年至2015年期间的纵向数据，从资产结构、负债结构、公司规模、公司风险、发展潜力5个方面分析了影响房地产上市公司盈利能力的因素。通过建立净资产收益率、流动资产率、资产负债率、总资产的对数、主营业务收入的对数5个观测变量的半参数部分线性混合效应模型进行实证分析，并根据贝叶斯推断给出了模型参数的估计值，最后通过将实证模拟结果与房地产行业上市公司的实际情况进行对比分析，证明了所建模型的有效性。

A study of the factors affecting the profitability of real estate listed companies based on semiparametric partially linear mixed models

Based on the longitudinal data for fifty Chinese real estate listed companies from 2006 to 2015, this paper analyzes the factors affecting their profitability from the viewpoints of asset structure, debt structure, firm size, company risk and development potential. In addition, we set up a semiparametric partially linear mixed model between the return on equity, current assets ratio and asset-liability ratio and use empirical analysis to propose the estimators of the model via Bayesian inference. Finally, we compare the empirical results with the actual situation for the real estate listed companies and find the results are in good agreement, which indicates that the model is effective.