基于GM（1，1）模型的上海市长期护理保险基金收支平衡实证分析

通过实证研究对上海市长期护理保险基金收支总额进行测算,预见长期护理保险收支失衡风险,保持长期护理保险资金可持续发展。对长期护理保险基金收支现状分析,运用GM(1,1)模型对2020—2050年上海市长期护理保险基金收支平衡性进行预测。研究以上海市城镇职工为主体,经测算,2020—2033年上海市长期护理保险基金收大于支,能满足失能老人的长期护理需求,2034—2050年上海市长期护理保险基金会出现收不抵支的现象,面临收支失衡的危险。研究结果显示,长期护理保险基金收支保持长期平衡,需建立长期护理保险自有基金,合理调整缴费比例;设定长期护理保险服务项目和服务内容,加强专业服务队伍建设;加强长期护理保险基金监督管理,建立多层次保障机制。

Empirical Analysis of the Balance of Revenue and Expenditure of Shanghai Long-term Care Insurance Fund Based on GM(1,1) Model

The total revenue and expenditure of Shanghai long-term care insurance fund is calculated through empirical research to foresee the risk of long-term care insurance revenue and expenditure imbalance and maintain the sustainable development of long-term care insurance funds.This study takes Shanghai urban employees as the main body.It is estimated that the revenue of the Shanghai long-term care insurance fund will exceed the expenditure in 2020—2033 to meet the long-term care needs of the disabled elderly;the revenue will be less than the expenditure from 2034 to 2050,and the long-term care insurance fund will face the danger of imbalance of revenue and expenditure.The results show that,to maintain the balance of long-term care insurance fund revenue and expenditure for a long period of time,it is necessary to establish a long-term care insurance self-owned fund and adjust the payment ratio reasonably;set long-term care insurance service items and service content,strengthen the construction of professional service teams;enhance the regulation and management of long-term care insurance fund and establish a multi-level guarantee mechanism;formulate relevant policies and regulations,and strengthen the construction of supporting facilities.