20世纪中国大旱的一个重要根源

本文研究了新星爆发和中国干旱的关系。从演绎推理和归纳推理两种不同的思维方法得到了相同的结论:新星爆发是中国发生严重干旱和大旱的一个重要根源。具体内容有三点。第一,新星爆发是20世纪中国全部10个最严重旱年的一个根源。第二,最亮视星等3等及更亮的新星爆发后,中国都要发生严重的干旱。这种严重的干旱绝大多数要连续两年,时间多数发生在新星爆发后的第2年和第3年。第三,最亮视星等3等及更亮的新星爆发后,黄河流域都要发生严重的干旱,时间是新星爆发后的第2年或第3年。新星爆发引起中国干旱的程度和最亮视星等有关,大体是新星越亮,引起中国干旱的程度也越重,但并非严格的正比关系。超新星也是引起中国干旱的根源。本文指出,古人畏惧异常天象、害怕它引起自然灾害的观点是正确的,不应被指责为迷信。本文的发现为预警我国今后的大旱提供了参考。

An Important Root Cause of All Great Droughts in China in 20th Century

The paper has studied the relationship between nova eruptions and droughts in China. From two different modes of thinking, deductive inference and inductive inference, we obtain a same conclusion： nova eruptions are an important root cause of great droughts and serious droughts in China. Concrete contents have three parts. Firstly, nova eruptions were an important root cause of all of ten great droughts in China in the 20th century. Secondly, after nova eruption with maximum apparent magnitude （MAM） 3 and brighter, a serious drought would surely occur in China. The serious drought mostly continued two years and often occurred in the second year and the third year after nova eruption. Thirdly, after nova eruption with MAM 3 and brighter, a serious drought would surely occur in the Yellow River basin in the second year or the third year after nova eruption. The extent of drought in China was in relation to the MAM of nova. Roughly the brighter the nova was, the more serious the drought in China was. But it is not an exact direct proportion relationship. Besides novae, supernovae also are a root cause of serious droughts in China. The paper concludes that our forefathers are correct for they believed some unusual astronomical phenomena would bring serious natural disasters. And this forefathers＂ point of view should not be censured a superstition. The paper＇s discovery provides a reference method for early warning future serious droughts in China.