基于平滑指数法的我国铜材产量预测

铜是用途广泛且较为贵重和稀缺的有色金属.科学预测我国铜材产量，是制定行业发展规划的基础，对指导企业有序、有效生产经营，保持我国促进我国铜产业健康发展具有重要的现实意义.平滑指数法是时间序列预测常用的方法，预测值是以前观测值的加权和，且对不同的数据给予不同的权数，新数据给予较大的权数，旧数据给予较小的权数.运用三次平滑指数法预测我国铜材产量，取得了理想的效果，平均预测仅为1.658 8%.由模型预测得到2017年6月我国铜材产量为178.356万t.

Prediction of Copper Output in China Based on Smoothing Index Method

Copper is a wide,valuable and scarce nonferrous metal.Scientific prediction of copper output in China is the basis for formulating the industry development plan.It has important practical significance for guiding enterprises to make orderly and effective production and operation and maintain the healthy development of China''s copper industry.The smoothing index method is a common method of time series prediction,which the predicted values are weighted sums of previous observations,and different weights are given to different data.The new data are given larger weights,and the old data are given smaller weights.In this paper,the three times smoothed index method is used to predict the output of copper in China,and an ideal effect has been achieved,which the average forecast is only 1.658 8%.It is predicted by the model that the output of copper in China is 178.356 thousand tons in June 2017.