不确定推理模型的火箭安全决策系统

针对火箭飞行过程和测量环境的复杂性及飞行特点的先验知识和规则的不确定性,提出了一个基于不确定推理算法的火箭安全控制方案。根据安判参数的特点,对其进行了分类,给出了专家系统知识的不确定表示和处理方法,并且结合安控决策规则和决策过程的特征,对推理控制策略进行了分析,并对冲突消解策略、搜索策略提出了相应的算法,给出了不确定匹配原则和可行度的传递方法,构建了与/或决策网和基于规则的通用不确定推理模型。实验和仿真表明该系统能迅速准确的获取火箭发射的各种警情,大大提高了火箭飞行安全控制决策的可靠性和真实性,对火箭的飞行状态进行有效的管理。

Uncertain reasoning model for the rocket safety decision system

In view of the complexity of the measuring environment and uncertainty of the a prior knowledge for rocket aviation,a rocket safety control system based on uncertainty reasoning is proposed.The uncertain representation and processing of the knowledge in expert systems are established according to the characteristics of the parameters .Following the characteristics of the decision rules and decision procudure,the reasoning control strategy is studied and the method for conflict resolving strategy and searching strategy is proposed.Then,the uncertain matching rules and the feasibility degree delivering method are expressed,and the decision-making network and the rule-based uncertainty reseaoning model were constructed.Simulation experiments show that this system can acquire the craft launching information quickly and accurately,which greatly improves the reliability and authenticity of safety control decision for rocket aviation,and can control the rocket aviating state effectively.