| 多变量时间序列CAR模型在交通负荷短期预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 马红娟,蒋红敬,郑喜英. 多变量时间序列CAR模型在交通负荷短期预测中的应用[J]. 中州大学学报, 2014, 0(3): 122-124 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 马红娟 蒋红敬 郑喜英 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 黄河科技学院信息工程学院,郑州450063 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（61304175）;河南教育厅科技攻关研究基金（2011C110005）;河南教育厅自然科学研究基金（148110024） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 交通负荷是影响交通通行寿命和可靠度的一个重要因素,交通负荷变化具有明显的周期性。本文针对多变量定性计算的交通负荷难题,利用时间序列的多变量自回归CARMA模型对交通负荷进行建模、预测的理论和方法,对动态系统实行统一建模。我们用递推最小二乘法的多变量自回归模型对交通负荷参数进行估计,并用DPS系统对模型进行预测和分析,测试结果证明了方法的有效性。
|
| 关 键 词： | 预测 交通负荷 多变量时间序列CAR模型 DPS系统 |
The Application of Multivarible Time Series CAR Modle in Short -Term Forecasting of Traffic Volume |
| |
| MA Hong-juan;ZHENG Xi-ying. The Application of Multivarible Time Series CAR Modle in Short -Term Forecasting of Traffic Volume[J]. Journal of Zhongzhou University, 2014, 0(3): 122-124 |
| |
| Authors: | MA Hong-juan ZHENG Xi-ying |
| |
| Affiliation: | MA Hong - juan, ZHENG Xi - ying, JIANG Hong - jing (Institute of Information Engineering, Huanghe Science and Technology College, Zhengzhou 4500063, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Traffic load is one of the most factors which affect the nature life and reliability in current traffic system. Month load changes of traffic system have obvious periodicity. According to the multivariable qualitative calculation problem, the theory and method to estabilish the time series CARMA model in dynamic system are discussed. Muhivarible autoregression model uses recursive least - squares method to estimate the parameter and forecast in DPS system. The testing results show the effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| |
| Keywords: | forecast traffic load muhivariable time series CAR model DPS system |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
