| 基于灰色关联理论的油轮运价指数波动分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 范永辉,杨华龙,张宝华.基于灰色关联理论的油轮运价指数波动分析[J].大连海事大学学报(自然科学版),2009,35(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 范永辉 杨华龙 张宝华 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学,交通运输管理学院,辽宁,大连,116026 |
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| 摘 要： | 为及时制订有关油轮运价指数波动的应对策略和规避相关海运风险,运用灰色关联理论对原油海运贸易量、油轮船队规模、原油价格及原油产量与油轮运价指数之间的关联度以及近期波罗的海油轮运价指数和前两个月的布伦特现货原油离岸价格之间的相关性进行研究.结果表明:四者与油轮运价指数之间的关联程度由高到低依次为油轮船队规模、原油海运贸易量、原油产量、原油价格;近期油轮运价指数波动滞后原油价格波动约3周左右.
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| 关 键 词： | 油轮 运价指数 灰色关联理论 |
Fluctuation analysis of tanker freight rate based on grey relativity theory |
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| FAN Yong-hui
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YANG Hua-long
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ZHANG Bao-hua.Fluctuation analysis of tanker freight rate based on grey relativity theory[J].Journal of Dalian Maritime University,2009,35(4). |
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| Authors: | FAN Yong-hui YANG Hua-long ZHANG Bao-hua |
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| Institution: | FAN Yong-hui,YANG Hua-long,ZHANG Bao-hua(Transportation Management College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China) |
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| Abstract: | To work out strategies timely while avoiding correlative maritime risks from the fluctuation of tanker freight rate,the paper calculated the grey relativity degree between tanker freight rate and other four factors including volume of seaborne trade of crude oil,size of world tanker fleet,crude oil price and crude oil production based on the grey system theory. The relativity between recent Baltic Dirty Tanker Index and Brent FOB spot price two months previously were studied. Results show that the relativit... |
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| Keywords: | tanker freight index grey relativity theory |
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