| 太阳能热水器市场销售趋势的灰色系统分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏中俊. 太阳能热水器市场销售趋势的灰色系统分析[J]. 安徽工程科技学院学报：自然科学版, 2003, 18(3): 31-35 |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏中俊 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽工程科技学院,安徽,芜湖,241000 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据灰色系统理论，建立了我国太阳能市场销售分析预测模型，包括GM(1，1)模型、残差修正模型、新息滚动模型等。该模型群以时序预测结果作为初步值，然后按近期发展趋势和政策分析进行修正，并通过不断输入新的信息进行滚动，以提高预测精度和可信度，使预测结果能更好地反映未来的发展和变化。
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| 关 键 词： | 太阳能热水器 灰色模型 市场预测 GM（1，1）模型 残差修正模型 新息滚动模型 灰色系统 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-2477(2003)03-0031-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-04-10 |
The gray systems analysis of marketing trend for hot- water utensils of solar energy |
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| WEI Zhong-jun. The gray systems analysis of marketing trend for hot- water utensils of solar energy[J]. Journal of Anhui University of Technology and Science, 2003, 18(3): 31-35 |
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| Authors: | WEI Zhong-jun |
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| Abstract: | According to the theory of gray system , the paper presents a model of marketing analysis and calculation of hot - water utensils of solar energy in our country , including GM( 1, 1) model, a model of amending defects, a model of rolling of new information etc. These models regard the result of time - sequence calculation as initial data, then amend it according to recent developing trend and policy analysis, and also through continuously imputing new information for rolling calculation, to improve the precision and confidence degree and to reflect future development. |
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| Keywords: | hot - water utensil of solar energy gray model marketing calculation |
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