基于Bass随机扩散模型的影视票房预测方法研究

本文对文化创意产业票房收益预测展开研究,提出了基于Bass随机扩散模型的票房收益预测方法.通过将人们观看影视的行为分为决定观看影视和付诸行动两个动作,用Gamma过程模仿了影视扩散的波动性特征,发现Gamma过程更适用于文化创意资产的扩散过程,通过实证研究证明,建立起的模型比传统票房收益预测方法提升了预测精度.

Research of Box-Office Revenue Forecast Method Based on Bass Random Diffusion Model

Prediction of box-office revenue was studied, and a box-office earnings forecast method based on Bass random diffusion model was proposed. By dividing the behavior of the people to watch the film into deciding to watch the film and taking action, the volatility characteristics of the film diffusion was imitated using the Gamma process. The results show that the Gamma process is more suitable for the diffusion process of cultural creative assets. The case study proves that the established model improves the prediction precision compared with the traditional box office earnings forecast.