基于多属性决策的城市基础设施事故风险评价

考虑到城市基础设施系统复杂性,引入多属性决策的相关理论,在对数据进行规范化整理的基础上,构造成对比较矩阵,对城市基础设施事故风险进行评价,找出城市基础设施事故灾害的关键风险因子,以期为管理人员提供相应的决策支持.本文以城市基础设施中的城市供水系统突发事件为例,建立层次分析模型进行风险评价,评价结果表明,供水突发事件风险最大的是供水管网存在的风险,其次是输水系统存在的风险;而引起供水突发事件风险最大的因子是水质污染风险,潜在风险最小的因子是水源供应不足带来的风险.

Risk Evaluation of Urban Infrastructure Accident Based on Multi-Attribute Decision Making Method

Considering the complexity of urban infrastructure system, the pair-comparison matrix was introduced with multi-attribute decision making theory based on standardizing data to evaluate the risk of urban infrastructure accident. The aim of this article was to find the key risk factors in urban infrastructure accident, and provide decision support for managers. The urban water-supply system was also taken for example to solve this question with the analytic hierarchy process. The result shows that the biggest risk of water-supply comes from water supply network, and the second important factor lies in water conveyance system. Among the risk factors of water supply network, water pollution is the key factor, and the short of water supply is the factor which has the least potential risk.