碳排放指标分解方法实证研究

研究碳排放指标分解指标的基本准则,对碳强度下降途径法、基准值调整法和趋势预测法进行了对比分析,在掌握各区县能源、经济等领域基本数据基础上,为保证北京市碳排放目标实现,研究建立基于能源、经济等指标下降的碳排放指标分解方法学.根据各区县历史指标数据及与预估数据测算出未来一段时期内各区县结构节能、技术节能和能源替代导致的碳强度年下降率,结合各区县经济社会能源发展预测、所属功能区定位等加以校验,最终形成区域碳排放指标分解初步方法.

An Empirical Research for Decomposition of Regional Carbon Emission Based on Means of Carbon Credits Reduction

The principles of index decomposition of carbon emission were studied. Based on accurate data of economic performance and energy consumption in different regions in Beijing, three different methods of index decomposition, namely, carbon intensity reduction method, reference value adjustment method and trend forecasting method were compared. In order to achieve the current goal of carbon emission reduction in Beijing, a methodology of index decomposition of carbon emission based on the reduction of energy and economic index was explored. Based on historical data and estimated value on carbon emission index, the possible carbon intensity reduction rate was calculated which was caused by structural, technical energy conservation as well as energy substitution in the forthcoming period in different regions of Beijing. The results are further tested with the energy development forecasts of different regions and their positioning of regional function, and then the final index decomposition of carbon emission in these regions in the forthcoming period are formed.