基于生态足迹的北京市水资源生态承载力现状与预测分析

为对北京市水资源承载力进行分析和评估,建立了北京市水资源生态足迹模型,对北京市1990～2011年总的水资源生态足迹,农业、工业、生活和环境水资源足迹,水资源生态承载力进行评价,并对2015年和2020年水资源生态足迹和承载力进行预测.结果表明北京市生活用水和环境用水生态足迹呈增长趋势,而工业和农业用水生态足迹呈增长趋势.即使考虑南水北调工程会给北京带来水资源,但是在2020年仍有10⁹m³的水资源缺口,因此必须建立合理的管理政策缓解北京市水资源短缺现状,实现水资源可持续利用的有效途径.

Assessment and Prediction of Water Resource Ecological Carrying Capacity in Beijing Based on Ecological Footprint

Based on the total water from 1990 to 2011, this study take Beijing for an example to assess the water resource carrying capacity and predict the water resource carrying capacity in the year of 2015 and 2020. Ecological footprint was conducted to evaluate the water resource including agricultural, industry, domestic, and environmental water consumptions. The results indicates that the domestic and environmental water resource ecological footprint has an increasing trend, whereas agricultural and industrial water resource ecological footprint shows a decreasing trend. Even taking the South to North water transfer project, the water supply still not meet the serious water demand in Beijing with 10⁹m³ of water shortage in 2020. Therefore, rational policies and measures should be established and implemented to make sure efficient water utilization in Beijing.