社会救援资源供给研究及系统动力学仿真

基于需求波动性大、需求时限短和需求种类难以预测的三个特性,将社会救援资源供给系统分为社会救援资源储备调用子系统和社会救援资源动员子系统,界定相关概念并分析其主要影响要素;运用系统动力学,在假设不存在信息延迟的情况下,分别对社会救援资源储备调用子系统、社会救援资源动员子系统和社会救援资源供给系统进行建模,并利用算例进行仿真,通过仿真结果分析,验证模型的可行性和有效性.

Research on Social Rescue Resources Supply and System Dynamics Simulation

Social rescue resources are the supports and key factors to ensure the efficiency of emergency rescue. From the analysis of the real cases, this paper proposes that social rescue resources have three characteristics: large demand fluctuation, short demanding period and hard to forecast demand kinds. Based on these characteristics, the social rescue resources supply were divided into two subsystems: social rescue resources reserves and social rescue resources mobilization. Assuming there is no information delay, the system dynamics was utilized to model social rescue resources reserves, social rescue resources mobilization and social rescue resources supply. Results of simulation can verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the models.