应急管理中“可减缓性”评价模型及应用

快速有效的评估是应急管理理论和实践中非常重要的一项工作，风险评价和损失评价早已有之，但是由于突发事件的复杂性等特点，现有的评价方法仍然存在不足。本文提出了一个新的概念--“可减缓性”评价，它评测一个突发事件发生后可以被减缓的程度，从而使应急管理人员更加及时有效地采取措施，在灾害造成更大损失前尽可能多地保全人员和物资财户。本文根据突发事件的不同特点和分类建立了相应的模型，从推迟的时间和降低的损失两个维度对“可减缀性”进行了度量，最后用两个例子对模型的应用进行了说明。

"Mitigability" Measurement Model and Application in Emergency Management

Quick and effective assessment is a problem of theoretical and practical importance in emergency management. Lots of research and applications have been developed for risk assessment and loss assessment, but they are still inadequate for effective incident assessment. In this paper, we propose a new conception - ＂mitigability＂, which enables emergency managers to evaluate the degree that an incident can be mitigated and then take measures timely and efficiently. We also develop the models of ＂mitigability＂ measurement in terms of postponed time and reduced loss depending on the characteristics of incidents.