大型低轨星座部署对空间碎片环境的影响分析

为分析大型低轨(low Earth orbit, LEO)星座部署对未来空间碎片环境的影响,本文利用空间碎片环境长期演化模型(space objects long-term evolution model, SOLEM)研究了大型星座卫星数量、质量、面积、部署高度及任务后处置(post mission disposal, PMD)策略等因素对碰撞次数和碎片数量的影响。分析可知,卫星数量和面积主要影响碰撞次数,而卫星质量主要影响由碰撞产生的新增碎片数量。在满足任务条件下,可综合考虑三者关系选取最合适方案。同时,星座部署在1 100 km高度对空间碎片环境影响较大,在遵守25年规则的前提下应将PMD成功率提升至95%以上。

Analysis of the impact of large LEO constellation deployment on the space debris environment

In order to analyze the impact of large low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation deployment on the future space environment, the space object long-term evolution model (SOLEM), is used to study the impact of the factors such as the number, the mass, the area, the orbit altitude of satellites and the post mission disposal (PMD) in large constellations on the number of collisions and debris. The analysis shows that the important factors affecting the collision are the number and area of satellites, while the main factor affecting the number of the new debris generated by collisions is the satellite mass. However, under the condition of satisfying the task, operators can consider the relationship of these three factors comprehensively to select the most appropriate plan. At the same time, it has a great impact on the space debris environment when deploying at 1 100 km and the success rate of PMD should be increased to more than 95% on the premise of complying with the 25-year rule.