吉林省玉米加工产业发展战略的动态仿真研究

吉林省依托玉米资源优势,制定了玉米加工产业发展战略.针对玉米加工产业系统具有非线性的、动态多回路反馈的特点,将吉林省玉米加工产业系统模型确定为包括人口、经济、玉米产业、交通运输、能源、水资源和环境7个子系统的大系统,采用系统动力学方法,对吉林省社会、经济、环境、能源和玉米加工产业系统进行了实时动态仿真.通过对高、中、低三类产业发展方案的作用、费用、效益等进行定量比较,应用层次分析法和可拓学思想中的优度评价方法,反映了不同发展战略下的系统动态行为并完成方案优化.研究结果有利于决策者对玉米加工产业发展战略进行科学决策和实施有效管理,并为实现吉林省玉米加工产业的可持续发展提供科学依据.

Study of dynamic emulations of maize-processing industrious development strategy in Jilin Province

Depending on the superiority of maize resource,maize industry developing strategy has been made by the government of Jilin Province.According to the characteristic of non-linear,dynamic and multi-loop-feedback of maize industry system,it can be regarded as a big system which is consisted of seven subsystems: population,economy,maize industry,transportation,energy,water resource and environment.The real-time,dynamic emulations about the society,economy,environment,energy and maize industry systems have been done through the systematic dynamic method.After the compare of the effect,cost and benefit of three industry developing plan: high,medium and low,it can reflect the different systematic dynamic action of different plan and offer a better plan by the methods of level-analysis and priority-assessment.The research result will do benefit to the scientific decision-making and effective management of maize industry developing strategy,it can also offer scientific basis for the reality of sustainable development of maize industry in Jilin Province.